The election of 1948 is remembered as one of the most dramatic and unexpected presidential contests in American history. Coming just four years after Franklin D. Roosevelt’s unprecedented fourth-term victory in 1944, the nation now faced a political landscape defined by Cold War anxieties, deep party fractures, and an incumbent president widely believed to be unelectable. Yet what followed would become one of the greatest electoral upsets in U.S. history.
The VP Turned Accidental POTUS
As we explored in the election of 1944 article, Harry S. Truman had been thrust into the presidency after FDR’s sudden death in April 1945. Serving only 82 days as vice president, Truman inherited both the conclusion of World War II and the burden of Roosevelt’s towering legacy.
His decision to authorize the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki brought the war in the Pacific to a close but left him facing enormous global and domestic challenges. As the Cold War with the Soviet Union emerged, Truman pushed for aid to Europe through the Marshall Plan and introduced the Truman Doctrine to contain communism. At home, however, strikes, inflation, shortages, and clashes with a Republican-controlled Congress eroded his popularity. By 1946, Truman’s approval ratings had dipped below 40%, and few believed he had any realistic chance of winning in 1948.
“Give ’Em Hell, Harry!”
Despite his dismal numbers, Truman pressed ahead. The Democratic establishment looked in vain for alternatives, even to the point of considering Dwight Eisenhower. But Truman secured the nomination at the Democratic National Convention and chose Senator Alben Barkley of Kentucky as his running mate.
His platform pledged civil rights reforms, including desegregating the military and promoting equality for African Americans — bold proposals that alienated Southern Democrats. Yet Truman’s no-nonsense style, attacking the “Do-Nothing Congress,” became the heart of his campaign. His whistle-stop train tour energized voters across the nation, earning him the rallying cry “Give ’Em Hell, Harry!”
The Dixiecrat Revolt
Truman’s embrace of civil rights split his party. Southern Democrats, furious at his proposals, bolted from the convention and formed the States’ Rights Democratic Party — better known as the Dixiecrats. Led by South Carolina Governor Strom Thurmond, the Dixiecrats nominated Thurmond with Mississippi Governor Fielding Wright as his running mate. Their goal was not to win outright but to secure enough Southern electoral votes to deny Truman or Dewey a majority, throwing the election into the House of Representatives.
Henry Wallace and the Progressives
On the left, former Vice President Henry A. Wallace launched the Progressive Party. Backed by celebrities and left-leaning intellectuals, Wallace called for expanded welfare programs, nationalized industries, women’s and civil rights, and above all, peace with the Soviet Union. But Cold War tensions and suspicions of Communist influence tainted his campaign, leaving many disillusioned.
Dewey Returns
The Republicans, buoyed by their 1946 midterm victories, expected an easy win. They turned once again to New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey, the party’s 1944 nominee, pairing him with California Governor Earl Warren. Dewey, a polished and confident candidate, was widely expected to cruise to victory. Polls consistently showed him ahead by comfortable margins, with the Gallup Organization predicting a Dewey win. Newspapers and pundits echoed the consensus.
Campaigns and Predictions
The race played out in four directions: Truman fighting against long odds, Dewey running a cautious and uninspired campaign, Wallace trying to push the Democrats further left, and Thurmond appealing to Southern segregationists.
Truman relentlessly hammered the Republicans, painting Dewey as a puppet of big business and branding the GOP-controlled 80th Congress as obstructive. Dewey, however, avoided risks, delivering bland and vague speeches designed not to alienate voters. His campaign’s overconfidence and reliance on polls led him to underestimate Truman’s momentum.
Election of 1948 Results: A Legendary Upset
On November 2, 1948, the American people stunned the political world. Harry S. Truman won 303 electoral votes and 49.6% of the popular vote, compared to Dewey’s 189 electoral votes and 45.1%. The Dixiecrats carried four Deep South states with 39 electoral votes, while Wallace and the Progressives failed to win a single state, finishing with just over 2% of the popular vote.
The image of a grinning Truman holding up the infamous Chicago Tribune headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman,” has since become an enduring symbol of media overconfidence and political miscalculation.
Outro: From War to Cold War
The election of 1948 proved that Truman was no lame-duck president. Against the odds, he secured a full term in his own right, cementing his role as the leader of America’s Cold War strategy. Just as 1944 had set the stage for postwar global conflict, the outcome of 1948 ensured continuity of leadership at a crucial time.
Next time, in the election of 1952, a war hero would finally step onto the political stage to challenge Truman’s Democratic successor, reshaping American politics for the Cold War era.
